Replan calculates both sides of a bid for a public transport net-cost contract: the cost of the tendered timetable with Replan Transit and the fare revenue from simulated demand with Replan SIM.
Under a net-cost contract the operator collects the fares and carries the demand risk. The bid rests on a ridership forecast that has to hold for the whole contract term, and the operator now makes this forecast itself. Replan calculates cost and demand on a digital twin of the region.
Take over the tendered timetable as GTFS or tables, and your vehicle types.
Blocks, shifts, drivers and fleet, annual cost with your cost models and energy price scenarios.
Simulate demand per line and time slice on a digital twin of the region, calibrated with your counts.
Read the break-even ridership and its sensitivity to headway, fare and ticket allocation. Then decide whether to bid and at what price.
Built from the tendered timetable, with deadhead, layover and fleet reserve. Vehicle scheduling
Paid hours with premiums, driver requirement from productive hours and reserve factor.
Hours, kilometres and fleet depreciation. Drivers, workshop, depot, overhead and energy price scenarios.
Passengers per line, section and time slice from an agent-based simulation. Replan SIM
The ridership at which revenue and compensation cover the cost.
How result and risk shift with headway, fare and ticket allocation, as scenarios against the baseline.
| Gross-cost contract | Net-cost contract | |
|---|---|---|
| Fare revenue | Goes to the transit authority | Stays with the operator |
| Demand risk | With the transit authority | With the operator |
| Payment | Agreed fee for the service | Compensation for the gap between cost and expected revenue |
| Bid needs | Cost of the service | Cost and an own ridership forecast |
Under bonus-malus contracts part of the payment depends on ridership or quality. An own demand forecast helps there too.
| Part | Often today | With Replan |
|---|---|---|
| Blocks and vehicles | Estimated by hand from the timetable | Built from the tendered timetable |
| Cost | A separate spreadsheet | Cost model per line, service type and vehicle type |
| Ridership | Counts carried forward | Simulation per line and time slice, calibrated with counts |
| Risk | One value without a range | Scenarios for headway, fare and ticket allocation |
| Time | Tight until the deadline | First twin in a day, results in weeks |
A transport contract in which the operator keeps the fare revenue and carries the revenue risk. The transit authority pays compensation for the gap between cost and expected revenue. Under a gross-cost contract the revenue goes to the authority.
The cost side with blocks, shifts, drivers, fleet, depreciation, energy and overhead. The revenue side with passengers per line and time slice, fare and ticket allocation. Together they give the break-even ridership.
The digital twin is calibrated against your counts and checked on reference cases. The method is peer-reviewed in Transportation Research Record 2025. Scenarios show how sensitive the result is to headway, fare and ticket allocation.
A first digital twin of the region runs in a day. Cost and demand for the tendered network are ready in weeks, calibrated with your counts. Onboarding and training →
Yes. There, too, part of the payment depends on ridership. The simulated demand per line and time slice shows which values the tendered timetable can expect. Use cases →
Get started
In 30 minutes we show on a tendered timetable how cost and ridership come together in Replan.
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